02/07/2012 by anjru0805
There has been a lot of talk recently about the Reds and pitcher Roy Oswalt being interested in one another. The pitching lineup as of right now consists of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey. Aroldis Chapman is still getting ready to convert to a starter and will probably start the season in AAA. Out of those six, Homer Bailey is the only one who is tradable and making any decent amount of money. Bailey is also out of options. So, if the Reds did want to bring Oswalt on board, they would need to get rid of Bailey. Let’s compare the two; we’ll start with pro-Oswalt.
Oswalt has had a much more consistent career. Over 11 season, Oswalt has a career 3.21 ERA. His other career numbers are solid too: a WHIP (BB+hits per inning pitched) of 1.194, a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.52 and a record of 159-93. Oswalt has finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting six times and is a three-time All-Star. Oswalt also has postseason pitching experience (four times). Homer Bailey’s numbers are less impressive. His has a five-year career ERA of 4.89, WHIP of 1.450, SO/BB of 1.99 and a 25-23 record. A lot of the speculation surrounding Bailey is that he isn’t progressing quickly enough for a 25-year-old. This is partially true, Johnny Cueto has been in the league a year less than Bailey, made significant strides last year and has proven to be an ace starter. In addition, Bailey is due to make significantly more money in the next two years and Chapman will move a starting job at some point. Is he worth keeping around?
There is another side to the argument though; Bailey is improving while Oswalt is not. Over the last 4 seasons, Bailey’s ERA, WHIP and SO/BB have all improved. While he really only had one bad month last season, Oswalt’s ERA was still significantly higher than his career ERA. Meanwhile, his WHIP and SO/BB last season were the worst of his career. Two more things to consider: Oswalt is 34, Bailey is 25 and both dealt with injuries last year (Oswalt – back, Bailey – shoulder).
John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer spoke to Walt Jocketty today.
“It’s all rumors,” Walt told Fay. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.”
As for me, I’m glad it’s all rumors. I agree with the philosophy to go for it all this year but I think an Oswalt signing would be over the top. Let’s make a run for it in 2013 too.